A question? Martingale style

[Dubpoet]

Well, I am considering playing a system of doubling up in the NBA that requires a 50 unit or so starting bankroll. First of all, I want to do it for big money between 500 and 1000 a unit, even if I do it for less I have the same questions. My guy with the system has netted 80 -140 units each year and is up 100 units after last night so far this year.

The Questions. First for the stat guys. The system is based on betting against a team on the road and betting the under until you win. I don't have every specific. But you double up till it wins. He is very selective and thows out certain teams and certain road trips. So 1rst? the lines for totals in a system like this do they go up or down from the start? Also Anyone have numbers for this for the whole nba all year with road trips of at least 3 games and with no breaks like AllStar game in between games of the road trip. I know for his system a couple of specifics but not many. For example he doesnt play the system in any way against San Antonio. Also doesnt do the under part with Dallas. Anyway any help here is great

Also if for Big money, a 5 of 5 double up bet could be as much as 20,000 and thats a lot of cash and not being in Nevada, any advise on how to get it down best without moving the lines. I am a veteran and I know you can use 4-7 offshore places but any insight on cheap juice and not moving the line would be great.



Thanks

 

[-Slim-]

I for one am not a genius but you have alot of variables in there....in the end it sounds like he's just trying to cap, not really created a system.....

i say this cause you cite examples like he doesnt bet against SA and doesnt take Dallas unders....what other "things" does he not do?

 

[Dubpoet]

Well. He is good and has done it for 5 years and won. There are about 5 exclusions to the system. the two listed I remember but its up 100 units so far and worth a look. Let it Ride is poster and its the Let it ride road system at Bettingtalk forum

 

[-Slim-]

what is the max number of units he will place on a wager?

 

[X-Files]

How many loses in a row would make him bankrupt? 5?

 

[Dubpoet]

I believe there is only up to 5 games that he will double up. I know its sounds crazy and I was the same way. This is my first year of kinda following and it sure is paying. he recommends 50 units starting Bankroll. Its actually similar to Tatehill's fades. Teams do quit on the road and go under. I will ask him to repost the basic system and I'll post it here.

 

[tatehill2000]

I have Used that technique for Totals,,,, it works,,,, I am curious as to how your friend is using it,,,

tater

 

[Dubpoet]

Here it is

this is post before season and its up 104 units this year. Cut and Paste:

<TABLE class=style18 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width=570>Well guys, it's about that time of year again, so I figured I'd go ahead and give those who are interested a heads up.

Let me say right off the bat that I am not advocating this system as a sure-fire way to put extra cash in your pocket. People have expressed interest, so I'm going to outline the way I use it. It is a martingale system, which everyone says stay away from. But I've used it since 1998, and it has finished in the black every year, including +88.12 units last year. That doesn't mean it won't completely cave and lose 500 units this year. I just wanted to be clear on that.

First, I'll recap what the system is all about. It's really very simple, and completely takes the handicapping aspect out of the game. If you enjoy looking at trends, stats, matchups, chemistry, schedules, etc., this isn't for you.

All you have to do is look for teams that are going on a 3-game or longer road trip. They must be consecutive games on the road, and if the trip is split up over the All-Star break, it is usually discarded. This is also for the regular season only, although I think nvralock used a variation of it during the playoffs with some success.

Once you have your team, you simply bet AGAINST them and bet on the UNDER. There are some teams where we don't go against them and/or we don't bet the total. I will cover that later. On the side bet, if the road team covers, you must double your bet on the 2nd game of the trip. If they cover again, you must double THAT bet on the 3rd game, and so on. Here's an example with the Portland Jailblazers from last year. Let's assume we are trying to win one unit, and we have already decided that our unit play for the system is going to be $100.
3/14 Port(+8') @ Minn...Risk $110 to win $100
Port wins 92-83 (we are down $110)
3/16 Port(+1) @ Milw...Risk $231 to win $210
Port wins 100-99 (we are down $341)
3/17 Port(+8) @ Indy...Risk $485.10 to win $441
Indy wins 80-71 (we are up $100)
You always have to risk enough to win whatever your losses are on the trip PLUS your unit play. As soon as Portland doesn't cover, that is the end of the betting for that trip. Don't try to extend it for whatever reason.

The premise is exactly the same for the totals bet. You just bet the under until the game goes under, or until every game in the series has gone over.

I mentioned earlier that there are some teams that I don't bet against and there also some teams where I won't bet the under on their games. Using these is just my attempt to dodge 1 or 2 losing road trips during the year, because let's face it, when you lose every game in a series, it hurts like a son-of-a-*****. If we can miss a couple of those big losses, it's worth missing out on a couple of units in wins. Here are the series bets that I NEVER make on ANY length of road trip:
Lakers TOTALS
Clippers TOTALS
Mavericks TOTALS
Spurs SIDES
Those are set in stone and I never bet the under with those teams, nor do I bet against San Antonio, regardless of how long the road trip is. There are also quite a few more that I don't bet on 3-game road trips ONLY. Here are those:
Sixers SIDES
Nets SIDES
Knicks SIDES
Bulls TOTALS
Magic TOTALS
Jazz TOTALS
Trailblazers SIDES
Rockets TOTALS
Grizzlies SIDES
Grizzlies TOTALS
These strictly come from my opinion, and they could be perfect all year long. Whether you follow them or not is up to you.

Another question that comes us is "what about pushes?" Well, if it happens in the first game of a 3-game trip, I throw out that bet. If it happens on the first game of a 4 or 5-game trip, I just reduce the length of the trip by one game, and continue on (assuming that the team does not now fall into one of my 3-game trip rules). If it happens after the first game, tough ****. That part of the system sucks, but there's nothing you can do about it.

Bankroll, bankroll, bankroll. It's hard to say exactly how much you need to play this system faithfully. One tip I've used is to see what your bet would be on the 5th game of a road trip (after doubling each time), and then double that number. If you have the means, then just pick your unit size and go with it. But DON'T increase your unit size as your bankroll grows. Suppose the first half of the season, we cruise with very few hiccups. Then, in the 2nd half (after you've increased your unit size about 250%), we lose 6 3-gamers, 3 4-gamers, and (God forbid), a 5-gamer. If you haven't increased your unit size, you could probably survive. But if you have, you are probably trying to raise rent money by hooking out on a corner hoping Blackjack comes along because he tips so well</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[tatehill2000]

lol,,,, Interesting,,,, there are ahalf dozenother ways to shape that method up to par,,,,,

Me Personally,,,, I HATE PROGRESSIONS,,,, I have found a way to make $ with a 1 Time move,,,,, that to me is Reasonable,,,, there are elements that can be employed with Totals that could make it a winner too,,,,,

tater

 

[TheGeneral+]

I believe in this type system. If you have data since 98, then you should have "feels" also where you know to back off sooner than taking a high risk. There are many systems within systems. All of the fine tuning takes time. Good luck.

 

[cincy_]

If someone forced me to do this (because I would never do it), I would do ONE thing.


I would make sub-sets based on historical data. The sub-sets could be for:

1. Playing on winning teams
2. Playing against winning teams
3. Playing on losers
4. Playing on road teams
5. Playing 3 in 4 days
6. Playing in the division

If you did all the subsets, you would probably see 1 or 2 subsets that worked better than others. If you could think of a reason to say that it wasn't simply random chance, you could use the system.

 

[Fezzik]

Total nonsense, I cannot believe this thread is not getting bashed.

Whether you have a system that picks 48%, 50%, 55%, or 60% on games, it makes no difference.

The betting system is idiotic. Ask 100 of the smartest mathematical minds out there (go to a library at MIT, etc). NONE of the 100 randomly sampled people will say this type of betting sytem has any merit.

My experience is that those who advocate such poor betting systems, are highly correlated with those that aren't very good picking ATS also.

It is amazing how uneducated, uninformed bettors continue to think they have developed magic winning methods the most informed, logical bettors bash.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Dub is a good poster and asked a fair question. I don't feel he is an idiot or being idiotic for asking the question. To blindly do as he is stating is not wise, but there are handicapping methods that use trends, stats, day, night, thursday games, etc...which can be called a system, using various units and they can work. It takes discipline. Discipline & data can do alot of things for bettors. Dub, I suggest you play with the strategy on paper for quite awhile before just going for it.

Again, Good luck.

 

[cincy_]

Whether you have a system that picks 48%, 50%, 55%, or 60% on games, it makes no difference.

The betting system is idiotic. Ask 100 of the smartest mathematical minds out there (go to a library at MIT, etc). developed

Go to a library at MIT????

WTF

I work in Boston, and I swear to God that MIT doesn't have too many books that other colleges don't have (especially Harvard) and I swear that sitting at MIT and reading the book doesn't help more than if you sat on a boat in Boston Harbor and read it.

If a person went to a library at MIT would he learn this a lot quicker than if he went a library at Boston College? or bought the book on Amazon.com?

It's fun to laugh at others ... and I thought I would return the favor.

The guy asked a question. If you want to say that its a bad system, tell us why. Telling us to go to MIT library isn't very helpful and the tone of your posting seemed very arrogant.

 

[cincy_]

The betting system is idiotic. Ask 100 of the smartest mathematical minds out there (go to a library at MIT, etc). NONE of the 100 randomly sampled people will say this type of betting sytem has any merit.

If you take the 100 smartest mathematical minds, you are taking the best 100 people - you are NOT taking "100 randomly sampled" people.

On the other hand, if you take 10 (or 20) people from a group of the 100 smartest mathematical minds, you could take "randomly sampled people", though.

Me thinks YOU need to pick up a statistics book. The have the best Statistics book at Harvard library - books that can't be found anywhere else.

 

[LEYKIS101]

A simple search will reveal mostly negatives like the ones below:

The Disadvantages of Martingale System

· Looks infallible in theory
· Requires a large bankroll
· Very risky - due to the maximum bet limits imposed by casinos
· If you run out of money or reach the house limit - you can lose a lot with no chance to recover your losses

Maybe if you had a very strict system like Tate employs and bet with very small amounts it's possible to profit, but I wouldn't even try it, just too much more negative than possitive that can happen.


Also, I believe Wink Martindale was a gameshow host.

 

[tatehill2000]

Cincy,,, you are 100% RIGHT ON the Money my freind,,,, I have Doen Escatly that,,,, and that is why I am winning int he NBA,,,, and Heads above 99% of the Other Cappers there,,,

I didnt want to come out and Say it,,, Because anyone that wants to GROW in the Industry,,(the HobbY) has to OWN their Knowledge,,, I can sit here all day and Lay the Fk out EXACTLY what I loook for and how I Change as the Season WANES On,,,, It wont make a Dam bit of Difference to anyone but 1%,,,, those that can Think THROUGH Problems,,,, and again we are at less than 1%,,,, 99% of the CATS otu there want the Answers FED to them so they have NO responsibility,,and they can BLAME others fro their RETARD failures,,,, Blah blah,,, sorry for the Rant,,, But Cincy you are on to my method,,,, and that is how I am approaching NBA,,and it works,,and wit will work for the next 20 years,,,, welcome to the gold key club, cause next year I will be Laying the Lead Pipe to my Bookie,, and he knows it,,LOL,,,,

thank you fro the Kind words LEYKIS<,,, and you are right,,, Martindale was a Genius,,, Martingale was a FOOL however,,,LOL,,,, there has to be HUGE statistical LEANS to EMPLOY a PROGRESIVE style,,,,,

I have one Given to my by the PATRIOT,,,, I am Tweeking it now,,,, there are many out there,,,, bottom line,,,, if you are not careful,,, you will Lose your BR,,

and forgive me for saying this cause I think CINCY gave you TOO much info,,, but I would NEVER give anyone answers they can Find on their own,,,, I would be ROBBING them from ENRICHING their own Minds,,,,

good luck,,
tater

 

[Dubpoet]

Guys All I'm saying is it has won for 5 years Up 104 units as of yesterday and up between 80 and 150 units the last 5 years and this system is documented. Thats all! Nba teams don't cover on the road and teams do quit and go under. I don't need to be bashed. I just posted this because of its success.

 

[tatehill2000]

Dub,,, Props to you,,, I sooooooo dont mean to bash,,,, I hope you see my thread as help,,,, I REALLLLY appreciate the fact you took the time to post it,,,, Class move,,,,

be vERYVERY careful what you Use as your BASE UNIT,,,, this ALONE will Make you or BREAK you,,,,

be careful,,,, from one Martingale Brother to Another,,,

(we cool DUB???)

tater

 

[quantumleap]

Fezzik:

Your opinion is important on this forum and should be listened to. However, I don't believe this forum should be a vehicle for you to bash others as you have here and in other threads. If you can't keep your comments from insulting others you add little.

Kind of like you were across the street.